Memos

Occasional notes on how we’re thinking, what we’re seeing, and where we’re focused.

Recent

January 30, 2026

2025 Tested. 2026 Adapts.

2025 marked a structural reset for digital assets, showing how closely the market is now tied to global macro forces and how quickly policy shocks can become liquidity stress. Rising correlations, leverage unwinds, and fragility in thinner market segments highlighted the importance of market structure, funding stability, and credible regulation for sustained institutional participation. Heading into 2026, liquidity conditions and geopolitical risk remain the key drivers. Higher sensitivity to rates and recurring risk-off episodes are likely to favor adaptable, resilient, and tactically driven strategies over static directional conviction.

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December 17, 2025

Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead

The four-year halving cycle still shapes long-term crypto market regimes, but its influence has materially weakened. Structural changes—most notably institutional adoption and ETF-driven capital flows—have shifted markets from issuance-led to liquidity-driven dynamics. In this environment, macro liquidity and risk conditions increasingly dictate timing and magnitude, with halvings serving as a secondary, psychological backdrop rather than a primary driver.

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October 29, 2025

October 10th Leverage Reset

October marked a structural reset in leverage across crypto markets. Aggressive deleveraging followed new U.S. tariff announcements and a government shutdown, triggering record liquidations and a spike in volatility. While conditions have stabilized, liquidity remains fragile and markets are now highly sensitive to policy clarity and funding normalization.

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September 26, 2025

Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Gold Revalued

For the first time, Bitcoin has been recognized as a U.S. reserve asset. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve converts a decade of missed opportunity into a long-term plan to secure America’s position in the evolving digital economy.

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Memos

2025 Tested. 2026 Adapts.

Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead

October 10th Leverage Reset

Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Gold Revalued

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Subscribe to
our Newsletter